What if a grid-battery fire triggers a storage moratorium?
A flagship grid-battery fire and storage moratorium is a sector-safety setback; the real trade is storage-integrator equity/credit and a modest copper/industrial-demand fade, while the mapped crypto-beta selloff is spurious. Rhymes with the 2021 Moss Landing/Victoria Big Battery fires that triggered local pauses but no macro contagion. Skeptical: this is contained — Solana/ETH have no causal link, so the risk-off cascade here is over-fitted; treat as a single-sector headline.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A catastrophic fire at a flagship grid-scale battery farm triggers moratoriums on large storage installations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.