What if Grid-equipment overordering leaves backlog cancellations and gluts?
Panic double-ordering of transformers and turbines during the squeeze unwinds into cancellations and inventory gluts once lead times normalize, pressuring equipment-maker earnings.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Panic double-ordering of transformers and turbines during the squeeze unwinds into cancellations and inventory gluts once lead times normalize, pressuring equipment-maker earnings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.98–+2.34% · other way +0.21% (n=8) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.11–+0.23% · other way +6.37% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.64–+0.87% · other way +12.69% (n=10) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.0–+1.87% · other way +7.37% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.37% · other way +0.53% (n=10) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.88–+0.49% · other way +9.56% (n=8) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.59–+0.47% · other way +0.84% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.25–+0.34% · other way -0.05% (n=10) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -2.47–+0.37% · other way +25.0% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -2.62–+0.56% · other way +25.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.3% | 74% | 19 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d +0.6% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -9.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 15 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.8% | 47% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |