What if Grid-scale clean-power abundance accelerates decarbonization?
A self-reinforcing collapse in clean-power and storage costs accelerates electrification and decarbonization faster than forecast, easing climate-supply stress and lifting clean-energy and industrial demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A self-reinforcing collapse in clean-power and storage costs accelerates electrification and decarbonization faster than forecast, easing climate-supply stress and lifting clean-energy and industrial demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.01–-0.25% · other way -4.36% (n=4) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.5–+0.41% · other way -4.1% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.44–+0.45% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.19–+0.56% · other way -4.74% (n=4) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.44–+3.09% · other way -6.43% (n=4) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.34–+0.61% · other way -1.15% (n=6) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -11.0–+14.49% · other way +5.3% (n=4) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -8.06–+11.74% · other way -4.6% (n=4) |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.24–+2.56% · other way +0.33% (n=4) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.14–+0.48% · other way +0.9% (n=4) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–-0.13% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.94–+5.09% · other way +2.33% (n=4) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.57–+1.06% · other way +0.3% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +3.3% | 82% | 10 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -4.3% | 77% | 12 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +16.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 7 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +12.0% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 69% | 7 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 68% | 13 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.3% | 64% | 10 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 13 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -11.4% | 64% | 6 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.16 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +23.8% · 5d +8.7% | 58% | 5 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 10 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |