What if parliament refuses to reopen the Groningen gas field?
Refusing to reopen Groningen during a cold-snap shortage keeps Europe structurally short, so TTF and EU power spike and the euro softens on a worse terms-of-trade/import bill. This echoes 2021-2022, when post-Groningen depletion left Europe hostage to LNG and TTF ran to record highs. Transmission: Europe must out-bid Asia for marginal LNG cargoes (US/Qatar exporters win), so the squeeze is a global-LNG, not just an EU, event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Amid a deep cold-snap shortage, parliament rejects bills to revive sealed Groningen wells as a strategic emergency reserve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.