What if parliament refuses to reopen the Groningen gas field?
Refusing to reopen Groningen during a cold-snap shortage keeps Europe structurally short, so TTF and EU power spike and the euro softens on a worse terms-of-trade/import bill. This echoes 2021-2022, when post-Groningen depletion left Europe hostage to LNG and TTF ran to record highs. Transmission: Europe must out-bid Asia for marginal LNG cargoes (US/Qatar exporters win), so the squeeze is a global-LNG, not just an EU, event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Amid a deep cold-snap shortage, parliament rejects bills to revive sealed Groningen wells as a strategic emergency reserve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.18–+1.64% · other way +6.89% (n=6) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.64–+0.06% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade LONG on NG: a cold-snap shortage with Groningen refusal is bullish gas, yet history's -3.8% rests on off-channel windows (Iran missile, Maduro, Ukraine-transit resolution); NG is weather/storage-idiosyncratic.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -3.7% | 64% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 35 | 0.25 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 31 | 0.18 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.10 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
Why this probability
Groningen reopening politically dead; explicit parliamentary refusal in 6mo window narrow. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.