What if Gulf-coast LNG train explosion strands feedgas, HH craters?
A catastrophic fire at a major US Gulf-coast liquefaction train halts exports for months, stranding feedgas in the domestic market; Henry Hub collapses even as TTF and JKM spike on lost cargoes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A catastrophic fire at a major US Gulf-coast liquefaction train halts exports for months, stranding feedgas in the domestic market; Henry Hub collapses even as TTF and JKM spike on lost cargoes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.6–+2.78% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.07–+0.81% · other way +5.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.07–+3.77% · other way +25.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.11–+0.3% · other way +8.54% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.3% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.03–+1.21% · other way -3.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.78% · other way +7.64% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.52% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.57–+0.18% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.06–+10.42% · other way +27.5% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.41% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.38–+1.26% · other way +12.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.53–+1.48% · other way +15.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.6% | 73% | 34 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.6% · 5d +3.9% | 59% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -4.5% | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +2.9% ↺ fades | 49% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 38% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 36% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |