What if Hawkish dot-plot surprise: median path lifts the terminal rate?
The Summary of Economic Projections shifts the median dot higher and pushes out cuts, repricing front-end rates upward; real yields and the dollar jump while rate-sensitive equities sell off.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The Summary of Economic Projections shifts the median dot higher and pushes out cuts, repricing front-end rates upward; real yields and the dollar jump while rate-sensitive equities sell off. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.37–+0.21% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -9.27–+7.41% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.1–-0.02% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.02–-0.33% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.32–+0.26% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.42–+1.38% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -6.86–+3.01% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.73–+0.88% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -0.31–+11.75% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -1.12–+12.84% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.01–+0.92% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -10.74–+12.43% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.56–+0.35% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 74% | 19 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.0% · 5d +3.0% | 67% | 6 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.9% | 64% | 19 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 19 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +7bp | 63% | 24 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 19 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 19 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 19 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 19 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |