What if Hawkish-surprise de-rating: a higher-for-longer repricing?
A hawkish policy surprise forces markets to price higher-for-longer rates, lifting real yields and compressing equity multiples sharply. The repricing hits long-duration growth and risk appetite hardest.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A hawkish policy surprise forces markets to price higher-for-longer rates, lifting real yields and compressing equity multiples sharply. The repricing hits long-duration growth and risk appetite hardest. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.85–+0.43% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.34–-0.05% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -11.99–+9.94% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.2–-0.28% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.27–-0.05% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.08–+1.85% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -6.1–+3.29% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist +1.88–+6.31% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.78–+0.76% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.89–+0.43% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist +1.8–+5.79% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -11.57–+16.67% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–-0.03% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.8% · 5d +4.4% | 80% | 5 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 73% | 18 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 18 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +13.1% · 5d +2.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -5.0% | 62% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -6.4% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |