What if HBM capacity sold out through next year tightens GPU supply?
High-bandwidth-memory output is fully booked, making HBM — not logic — the binding constraint on GPU shipments and handing memory suppliers extraordinary pricing power.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. High-bandwidth-memory output is fully booked, making HBM — not logic — the binding constraint on GPU shipments and handing memory suppliers extraordinary pricing power. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.98–+2.66% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.75% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.83–+1.32% · other way -7.92% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.41–+0.92% · other way -6.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.21–+18.88% · other way -2.06% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.08–+0.33% · other way -7.74% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.07–+0.32% · other way +0.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.4–+0.29% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.49–+0.06% · other way +4.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.22–+2.74% · other way -1.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.46–+0.17% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.64–+0.72% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.32–+0.22% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -5.5% | 73% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.5% | 72% | 40 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 68% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +17.1% · 5d +3.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.7% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |