What if HBM/DRAM memory super-cycle: prices spike +275%?
AI demand and disciplined supply drive a memory super-cycle with HBM and DRAM contract prices up sharply, delivering windfall margins to the memory oligopoly.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. AI demand and disciplined supply drive a memory super-cycle with HBM and DRAM contract prices up sharply, delivering windfall margins to the memory oligopoly. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.86–+4.19% · other way +0.74% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.45–+3.05% · other way +0.61% (n=10) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.08–+0.72% · other way +2.64% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.23–+1.95% · other way -1.8% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.33–+1.92% · other way +0.26% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.9–+2.02% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.56–+19.84% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.83–+0.72% · other way -0.45% (n=11) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.37–+0.75% · other way -1.43% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.12% · other way +1.37% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.16–+0.36% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.11–+0.36% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.4–+3.28% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -7.0% | 72% | 36 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.15 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.6% | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |