What if Heat-dome forced outages trigger rolling blackouts in ERCOT?
Coincident heat-driven demand and thermal forced outages overwhelm ERCOT reserves, forcing rotating outages; the reliability failure spikes volatility, hits Texas activity and revives grid-hardening capex debates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Coincident heat-driven demand and thermal forced outages overwhelm ERCOT reserves, forcing rotating outages; the reliability failure spikes volatility, hits Texas activity and revives grid-hardening capex debates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.2–+5.96% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.34–+1.02% · other way -6.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.09–+0.08% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.87–+0.57% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–+0.64% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.2–+1.84% · other way +7.67% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.38% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 9 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.19–+1.87% · other way +12.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.04% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.85% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.26–+8.16% · other way +25.88% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.53–+0.14% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.22% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -3.3% | 67% | 37 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.6% · 5d +2.0% | 61% | 13 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 37 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +3.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +3bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.7% | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | · |