What if rising lethal-heat days cut outdoor-labor capacity across the US South and South Asia?
Rising lethal-heat days cut outdoor-labor capacity and lift mortality across the US South, South Asia and the Gulf, a chronic-physical productivity channel NGFS Phase V quantifies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising lethal-heat days cut outdoor-labor capacity and lift mortality across the US South, South Asia and the Gulf, a chronic-physical productivity channel NGFS Phase V quantifies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.14–+1.19% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.25–+1.45% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.39% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.21–+0.81% · other way +19.87% (n=12) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–-0.04% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.78–+0.55% · other way +2.48% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.95% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.98–+0.74% · other way -11.18% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.71% · other way -0.77% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.97–+2.12% · other way -2.37% (n=11) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.91–+2.5% · other way -7.02% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.93–+4.18% · other way +3.73% (n=11) |
| 14 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.86–+1.04% · other way +18.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +8.7% | 56% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 15 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 52% | 23 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 43% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |