What if rising extreme-heat frequency during grain-fill caps wheat, corn and rice yields below trend?
Rising frequency of extreme-heat days during pollination and grain-fill caps yields of wheat, corn and rice below trend, structurally tightening grain supply, an NGFS/IPCC physical-yield scenario.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Rising frequency of extreme-heat days during pollination and grain-fill caps yields of wheat, corn and rice below trend, structurally tightening grain supply, an NGFS/IPCC physical-yield scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.