What if steel, cement and chemicals absorb a multi-hundred-dollar carbon cost?
Steel, cement and chemicals absorb a multi-hundred-dollar carbon cost under an orderly net-zero path, compressing margins for hard-to-abate sectors and pressuring their credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Steel, cement and chemicals absorb a multi-hundred-dollar carbon cost under an orderly net-zero path, compressing margins for hard-to-abate sectors and pressuring their credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.4–+1.85% · other way -1.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.52–+0.75% · other way +1.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.03–+0.99% · other way +8.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.49–+0.02% · other way +1.31% (n=10) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.04% · other way -1.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.54–+0.5% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.01–+0.65% · other way +21.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.55–+1.23% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 9 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.99–+1.58% · other way +6.71% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+-0.0% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.51–+5.66% · other way -10.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.5–+1.12% · other way +4.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.69–+0.2% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.45–+0.98% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.4% | 75% | 36 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.9% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +1bp | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +6.0% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |