What if US natural gas prices turn negative again?
A Permian associated-gas glut plus Waha pipeline limits push Henry Hub/Waha negative; cheap feedgas lowers US ammonia and nitrogen-fertilizer costs, easing grain input costs at the margin. This rhymes with the 2019-2020 and spring-2024 Waha negative-price episodes, which crushed regional gas but barely touched oil. The EUR/USD +0.2% leg is dubious — a US-localized gas glut is not a euro-import shock and that channel should be dropped.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Permian associated-gas glut plus pipeline limits drive Waha and Henry Hub prices below zero. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.