What if US natural gas prices turn negative again?
A Permian associated-gas glut plus Waha pipeline limits push Henry Hub/Waha negative; cheap feedgas lowers US ammonia and nitrogen-fertilizer costs, easing grain input costs at the margin. This rhymes with the 2019-2020 and spring-2024 Waha negative-price episodes, which crushed regional gas but barely touched oil. The EUR/USD +0.2% leg is dubious — a US-localized gas glut is not a euro-import shock and that channel should be dropped.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Permian associated-gas glut plus pipeline limits drive Waha and Henry Hub prices below zero. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.6–+0.65% · other way -18.46% (n=5) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.21–+1.27% · other way -1.8% (n=5) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.13–+4.57% · other way -12.69% (n=5) |
| 4 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.57% · other way -4.17% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +0.9% | 72% | 13 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.6% | 69% | 13 | 0.27 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 13 | 0.23 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.8% | 41% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 37% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 47% | 13 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.6% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 31% | 13 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
No analogues but Waha negatives are recurrent reality; pipeline relief eases Henry Hub. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.