What if Henry Hub settles into a higher $4-5 LNG-era trading range?
As exports structurally link US gas to global demand, Henry Hub settles into a durably higher $4-5 range versus the prior $2-3 decade, raising input costs for power and industry alike.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. As exports structurally link US gas to global demand, Henry Hub settles into a durably higher $4-5 range versus the prior $2-3 decade, raising input costs for power and industry alike. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.74–+2.16% · other way +5.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.24–+0.32% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.85–+18.01% · other way -2.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.59–+13.72% · other way -5.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 63% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 23 | 0.21 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 20 | 0.21 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 58% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 23 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.5% | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | · |