What if Hormuz gas-feedstock cost-push spikes Middle-East urea?
A Strait-of-Hormuz scare lifts feed-gas costs and curbs Gulf ammonia/urea output; global nitrogen prices jump, raising next-season farm input costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Strait-of-Hormuz scare lifts feed-gas costs and curbs Gulf ammonia/urea output; global nitrogen prices jump, raising next-season farm input costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.01–+1.2% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -1.26–+1.07% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.18–+1.07% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.16–+5.62% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.37–+1.75% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.16–+1.35% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.34–+2.35% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.17–+0.69% · other way +3.96% (n=12) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.17% · other way +4.77% (n=12) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.12% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.72–+0.25% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.51–+15.12% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.68–+0.18% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.17–+16.69% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 30 | 0.08 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 34 | 0.08 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 35 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |