What if Iran sanctions relief adds 1.3 mb/d into an oversupplied market?
A nuclear understanding lifts restrictions and Iran ramps exports by over 1 mb/d into an already-soft market; Brent slides toward the low-$60s and the heavy-sour discount narrows as barrels return.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A nuclear understanding lifts restrictions and Iran ramps exports by over 1 mb/d into an already-soft market; Brent slides toward the low-$60s and the heavy-sour discount narrows as barrels return. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -2.7% hist -8.1–+0.73% · other way +14.47% (n=8) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.02–+1.79% · other way -0.6% (n=8) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.29–+1.7% · other way -0.52% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -7.16–+13.21% · other way +5.54% (n=8) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.38–+2.51% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.09–+4.46% · other way -1.75% (n=4) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.61–+4.39% · other way -0.65% (n=4) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.13–+0.92% · other way +0.36% (n=8) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -8.14–+9.82% · other way -0.79% (n=7) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.53% · other way -0.78% (n=8) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.87–+1.6% · other way -0.44% (n=8) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+1.18% · other way +0.73% (n=9) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.05–+1.09% · other way -0.34% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +29.4% · 5d +9.1% | 75% | 6 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 75% | 20 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 70% | 19 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -5.4% | 74% | 19 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +1.4% | 71% | 17 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 67% | 20 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 17 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 10 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.6% | 57% | 17 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 20 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 17 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |