What if Hot core CPI forces the Fed to pause an in-progress cutting cycle?
A re-acceleration in core services inflation makes the Fed halt mid-cycle, repricing the path hawkishly; front-end yields jump and equities wobble as the easing trajectory flattens.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A re-acceleration in core services inflation makes the Fed halt mid-cycle, repricing the path hawkishly; front-end yields jump and equities wobble as the easing trajectory flattens. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -6.05–+0.78% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.94–-0.16% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.84–-0.29% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.32–+0.66% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.74–+1.31% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.31–+2.75% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -7.68–+2.84% · other way -5.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -0.48–+13.09% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.15% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -0.35–+10.97% · other way +15.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.1–+4.34% · other way -15.47% (n=5) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.99–+0.51% · other way +3.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.57–+5.51% · other way +17.0% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -0.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -4.9% | 70% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.1% | 66% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -6.2% | 65% | 14 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 23 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d +8.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 24 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -0.7% | 63% | 25 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 29 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |