What if a flagship HVDC transmission megaproject is cancelled mid-build?
Cancelling a flagship continent-spanning HVDC line mid-build strands remote wind/solar, modestly trimming copper/industrial demand tied to the build-out. The nearest reads are repeatedly delayed mega-interconnectors like Germany's SuedLink and the UK-Morocco Xlinks uncertainty. Forward angle: the macro impact is negligible; the real signal is that long-distance transmission remains the Achilles heel of renewables integration, keeping stranded-generation and curtailment risk elevated.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A flagship continent-spanning HVDC transmission line is cancelled mid-build, stranding remote wind and solar capacity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.73–+6.87% · other way +7.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -2.07–+3.87% · other way -1.02% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 12 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.9% | 70% | 12 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 12 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 12 | 0.03 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.7% | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.1% | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 25% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 41% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
HVDC megaprojects stall often, but outright mid-build cancellation less common. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.