What if Iberian-style voltage collapse cascades into a regional blackout?
A voltage-stability failure on a high-renewables grid triggers a cascading blackout across a major region, echoing the Iberian outage; the shock spikes volatility, hits consumer and industrial activity and re-prices grid-reliability risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A voltage-stability failure on a high-renewables grid triggers a cascading blackout across a major region, echoing the Iberian outage; the shock spikes volatility, hits consumer and industrial activity and re-prices grid-reliability risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.72–+0.58% · other way +23.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.27–+1.02% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.79–+0.81% · other way -6.22% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.64–+0.18% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.76–+1.69% · other way +6.51% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.96–+0.76% · other way +5.97% (n=11) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.29–-0.06% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.29–+4.45% · other way +24.08% (n=11) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.48–+0.38% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–-0.07% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.28% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+1.32% · other way +2.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.29–+0.33% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -9.0% | 67% | 12 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +2.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +2.2% | 56% | 9 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |