What if EV adoption collapses catalytic-converter demand and strands platinum-group miners?
EV adoption collapses internal-combustion catalytic-converter demand, stranding platinum-group-metal mines and refiners reliant on autocatalyst offtake.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. EV adoption collapses internal-combustion catalytic-converter demand, stranding platinum-group-metal mines and refiners reliant on autocatalyst offtake. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Silver ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.34–+1.41% · other way -1.98% (n=10) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.13–+0.74% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.33–+0.49% · other way +0.48% (n=10) |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.08% · other way +1.76% (n=8) |
| 5 | Silver XAGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.78–+0.53% · other way +5.02% (n=10) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.3–+0.65% · other way +0.72% (n=10) |
| 7 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+0.22% · other way -1.89% (n=10) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.38–+1.52% · other way +19.86% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.5% | 72% | 32 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 11 | 0.25 | · |
| XAG XAG | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +2.3% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 50% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 47% | 32 | 0.00 | · |