What if India sugar export ban on monsoon shortfall lifts prices?
A weak monsoon cuts Indian cane output, prompting a sugar export ban that tightens the global sugar market and lifts soft-commodity and food inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A weak monsoon cuts Indian cane output, prompting a sugar export ban that tightens the global sugar market and lifts soft-commodity and food inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–-0.15% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.07% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.66–+0.62% · other way +0.79% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.24–+0.3% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.63–+0.01% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.37–+0.89% · other way -1.14% (n=11) |
| 7 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.83–+0.69% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.29–+0.64% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.88–+1.2% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.89–+1.3% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.74–+0.61% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.08–+2.19% · other way +2.57% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.36–+0.48% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.05–+0.81% · other way -4.29% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 24 | 0.06 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 24 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 26 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +5.6% | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 52% | 36 | 0.04 | · |