What if IRA clean-energy credit rollback de-rates renewable developers?
Repeal or curtailment of clean-energy tax credits worsens project economics and slows the deployment pipeline, de-rating solar, wind and storage developers reliant on subsidies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Repeal or curtailment of clean-energy tax credits worsens project economics and slows the deployment pipeline, de-rating solar, wind and storage developers reliant on subsidies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.39–+0.93% · other way -2.5% (n=9) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.88–+2.25% · other way -3.28% (n=9) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.62–+0.98% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.41–+1.28% · other way -2.96% (n=9) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.01–+5.98% · other way +3.58% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.13% · other way -1.58% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.24–+2.49% · other way +15.57% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.4–+1.46% · other way +4.97% (n=8) |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.97–+0.73% · other way +19.65% (n=9) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.53–+0.18% · other way -0.56% (n=9) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.94–+3.24% · other way +8.09% (n=10) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.12–+0.74% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.19–+1.23% · other way +7.12% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 75% | 19 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 71% | 16 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 68% | 16 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.3% | 62% | 15 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.0% | 63% | 18 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.22 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 19 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 15 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 19 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 16 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |