What if a China-stimulus restock and low port inventories trigger an iron-ore short squeeze?
A China-stimulus-driven restock plus low port inventories squeezes iron ore sharply higher, whipsawing steel margins and prompting Chinese price-control intervention, a demand-and-positioning squeeze scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A China-stimulus-driven restock plus low port inventories squeezes iron ore sharply higher, whipsawing steel margins and prompting Chinese price-control intervention, a demand-and-positioning squeeze scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -6.25–+2.21% · other way +4.4% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.99–+0.47% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.24–+0.61% · other way +2.41% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.34–+1.11% · other way -1.98% (n=11) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.29–+0.32% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.16–+0.58% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
| 7 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.8–+0.59% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.0% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.16% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.29–+6.03% · other way +5.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist +0.31–+0.75% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 35 | 0.30 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 35 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.7% | 63% | 32 | 0.19 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 35 | 0.06 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.3% | 54% | 35 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.9% | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 40% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +1bp | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |