What if Jet-fuel demand recovery tightens the kerosene balance?
A full rebound in long-haul aviation lifts jet-fuel consumption above pre-pandemic peaks, tightening the kerosene pool and pulling on crude runs; jet cracks widen and pressure airline fuel costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A full rebound in long-haul aviation lifts jet-fuel consumption above pre-pandemic peaks, tightening the kerosene pool and pulling on crude runs; jet cracks widen and pressure airline fuel costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Oil demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.09–+12.31% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 2 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.82–+4.16% · other way +2.72% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.99–+9.84% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.7–+5.15% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 32 | 0.21 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.1% · 5d +2.9% | 57% | 32 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +12.3% · 5d +2.5% | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 47% | 28 | 0.00 | · |