What if Jet-fuel demand stalls as business travel structurally shrinks?
Durable hybrid-work habits cap corporate flying, stalling jet-fuel demand below trend and leaving kerosene long; jet cracks soften and the demand miss feeds the broader distillate surplus.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Durable hybrid-work habits cap corporate flying, stalling jet-fuel demand below trend and leaving kerosene long; jet cracks soften and the demand miss feeds the broader distillate surplus. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Jet fuel ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.