What if Kazatomprom supply cut tightens the uranium balance?
A Kazatomprom production guidance cut on sulfuric-acid shortages and reserve depletion removes the marginal pounds, swinging the uranium market into deficit and lifting spot.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A Kazatomprom production guidance cut on sulfuric-acid shortages and reserve depletion removes the marginal pounds, swinging the uranium market into deficit and lifting spot. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.02% · other way -2.93% (n=11) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.42–-0.24% · other way -3.33% (n=11) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–-0.19% · other way -3.14% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.3–+4.79% · other way +2.29% (n=6) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.76–+0.66% · other way -3.69% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.98–+6.62% · other way +3.18% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.1–+0.29% · other way +0.18% (n=11) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.31–+3.64% · other way -5.95% (n=6) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.83–+5.79% · other way -4.32% (n=11) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.46–+1.13% · other way +14.24% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.87–+6.24% · other way -2.78% (n=10) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.2% · other way +0.33% (n=11) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.71–+17.64% · other way +5.8% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +8.9% · 5d +2.4% | 80% | 23 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +15.0% · 5d +1.2% | 68% | 24 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 16 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.9% | 65% | 27 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +1.7% | 59% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +18.0% · 5d +5.5% | 59% | 12 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 25 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -8.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.09 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 51% | 33 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 25 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |