What if a sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports?
A sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports, pushing chaebol-linked credit wider and forcing BoK to weigh easing against won weakness.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp China slowdown collapses Korean intermediate-goods and petrochemical exports, pushing chaebol-linked credit wider and forcing BoK to weigh easing against won weakness. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.15–+1.0% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -8.19–+3.13% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.91–+0.67% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.39–+0.29% · other way +1.82% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.17–+2.87% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.74–-0.11% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.17–+1.35% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.18–+1.18% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 10 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.3–+0.77% · other way -0.98% (n=10) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.41–+0.22% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.9–+0.42% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–+0.06% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.7–+0.05% · other way -0.96% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -15.0% | 67% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -7.4% | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.3% | 61% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 13 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |