What if a China downturn slashes Korean semiconductor and machinery exports?
A China downturn slashes Korean exports of semiconductors, petrochemicals and machinery (China is ~20% of Korean exports), pressuring the won, KOSPI and Samsung/SK Hynix earnings.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A China downturn slashes Korean exports of semiconductors, petrochemicals and machinery (China is ~20% of Korean exports), pressuring the won, KOSPI and Samsung/SK Hynix earnings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.08–+0.61% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.06–+0.29% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.04–+0.01% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.41–+0.79% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–+0.01% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.14–+0.7% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–-0.07% · other way -1.21% (n=12) |
| 8 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.92–+0.64% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.44–+0.3% · other way -2.76% (n=11) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–-0.1% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–-0.12% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.39–+0.76% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.01% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.36–+0.7% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.8% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.9% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.9% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |