What if LatAm central banks out-ease the Fed, narrowing carry buffers?
Faster rate cuts across Latin America relative to the Fed compress carry cushions, leaving regional currencies vulnerable to a dollar bounce.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Faster rate cuts across Latin America relative to the Fed compress carry cushions, leaving regional currencies vulnerable to a dollar bounce. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.07–+2.58% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.39–+0.23% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.05% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.87–+4.03% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.0% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.31% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.04–+0.18% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.4% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.33–+5.54% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.95–+3.26% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.06% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.04% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.78–+0.41% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -1.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 14 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -5.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 62% | 27 | 0.19 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.5% | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 23 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |