What if delaying then forcing the climate transition scars global growth permanently?
Delaying then forcing the transition under NGFS assumptions inflicts a permanent global-growth scar, with the abrupt adjustment cost exceeding the orderly path's cumulative GDP loss.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Delaying then forcing the transition under NGFS assumptions inflicts a permanent global-growth scar, with the abrupt adjustment cost exceeding the orderly path's cumulative GDP loss. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.42–+3.66% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.55–+0.62% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.76–+0.51% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.68–+7.75% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.15–+6.33% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.79–+0.7% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.1–+0.57% · other way -3.11% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.82–+6.0% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.23–+3.5% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.72–+0.39% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–+0.67% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.79–+0.66% · other way -0.68% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.63–+0.02% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.7% | 74% | 19 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 69% | 16 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +4.2% | 65% | 17 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.5% · 5d -3.7% | 67% | 3 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 16 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.4% | 59% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |