What if Libya's oil ports fall under blockade again?
Libyan port blockades pulling 1mbd is a real Brent event: the cascade's +5.4% Brent/+4.5% WTI is the right shape -- light-sweet Es Sider/Sharara loss hits European refiners hardest. Direct rhyme is the 2020 Haftar blockade (~1.2mbd off for months) and 2011's civil-war outage, both of which lifted Brent's sweet-crude premium. Transmission: Italy/Spain are prime Libyan-crude buyers via Med refining. Forward: OPEC+ spare capacity caps the upside versus 2011, so this is a Brent-Dubai spread/sweet-sour trade more than an outright melt-up.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed east-west civil war and armed blockades of Libyan oil ports remove over a million barrels from world markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.