What if lithium prices super-spike after EV demand outruns post-crash supply?
EV-battery demand outruns new lithium supply after the 2023-24 price crash, driving a violent rebound in carbonate/hydroxide prices and squeezing automakers' battery-cost guidance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. EV-battery demand outruns new lithium supply after the 2023-24 price crash, driving a violent rebound in carbonate/hydroxide prices and squeezing automakers' battery-cost guidance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.17–+1.92% · other way -1.9% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.83–+1.42% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.87–+1.76% · other way +2.34% (n=11) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.78–+0.92% · other way -2.14% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.72–+2.88% · other way +2.99% (n=7) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.88–+8.41% · other way +2.53% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +-0.0–+0.3% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -10.52–+11.38% · other way -2.03% (n=7) |
| 10 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.21–+3.34% · other way -1.1% (n=11) |
| 11 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.36–+0.57% · other way -0.87% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -9.32–+10.06% · other way +2.52% (n=11) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -6.0–+21.17% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.88–+1.24% · other way +1.51% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +18bp · 5d +6bp | 74% | 15 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.5% | 70% | 10 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 11 | 0.19 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -7.0% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 40% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 45% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +11.9% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 33% | 6 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |