What if LNG glut collapses long-term contract slopes below 11% Brent?
Buyers exploit the supply wave to push new long-term LNG contract slopes below 11% of Brent, structurally cheapening Asian gas procurement and squeezing exporter project economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Buyers exploit the supply wave to push new long-term LNG contract slopes below 11% of Brent, structurally cheapening Asian gas procurement and squeezing exporter project economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.11–+4.55% · other way +5.06% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.25–+8.8% · other way +0.64% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.91–+1.65% · other way -0.67% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.9% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.14% · other way -0.48% (n=10) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.73–+6.35% · other way +2.19% (n=10) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.31–+0.82% · other way +0.43% (n=10) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -2.71–+6.62% · other way +12.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -3.2–+4.96% · other way +6.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -4.5% | 65% | 28 | 0.24 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 13 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -6.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 12 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.5% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 45% | 25 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.6% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 44% | 13 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 25 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +6bp | 42% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 24 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 33% | 20 | 0.00 | · |