What if UK leasehold reform revalues millions of flats overnight?
UK leasehold abolition is a wealth-transfer from freeholders to leaseholders — it craters ground-rent annuity income and revalues flats, hitting specialist freehold-investor vehicles and insurers holding ground-rent portfolios, but it is not a systemic credit event, so the small risk-off cascade is roughly right in magnitude. Closest rhyme is the 2017-22 ground-rent scandal and the FCA's leasehold clampdown that already impaired those income streams. Largely a UK-domestic legal repricing with minimal global transmission. Roots sensible.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sweeping UK leasehold abolition slashes freeholder ground-rent income and revalues millions of flats overnight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.