What if US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as Canadian terms of trade deteriorate?
A US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as terms-of-trade deteriorate and the BoC eases, with import-cost passthrough complicating the inflation outlook.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as terms-of-trade deteriorate and the BoC eases, with import-cost passthrough complicating the inflation outlook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.92–-0.71% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.33–-0.69% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -10.67–+2.36% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.17–-0.35% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -4.54–+0.79% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.07–-0.3% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.74–+1.23% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.95–-0.23% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -9.68–+1.02% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.72–+1.22% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.42–+0.31% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.43–-0.06% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.9–-0.24% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.4% | 78% | 36 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.1% | 75% | 36 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.9% | 75% | 33 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -3.5% | 69% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 71% | 39 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 72% | 36 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -0.9% | 69% | 35 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.0% | 68% | 36 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.1% | 67% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |