What if Low stable power prices re-rate regulated utilities as growth defensives?
Cheap abundant generation keeps customer bills contained while load grows, letting regulated utilities expand rate base without rate-shock backlash; XLU re-rates as defensive growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Cheap abundant generation keeps customer bills contained while load grows, letting regulated utilities expand rate base without rate-shock backlash; XLU re-rates as defensive growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.35–+7.22% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.91–+10.09% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.69–+3.49% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.53–+7.73% · other way -5.04% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.67% · other way -1.08% (n=6) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.24–+6.84% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.65–+1.27% · other way +16.37% (n=6) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.05–+0.35% · other way +0.33% (n=5) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+1.62% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 11 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.54–+0.64% · other way -0.26% (n=5) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.87–+1.8% · other way -1.54% (n=5) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.01–+0.29% · other way -0.91% (n=5) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -17.9–+24.58% · other way +15.26% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +25.9% · 5d +7.1% | 68% | 7 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +6.9% · 5d +2.4% | 64% | 18 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 11 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 20 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 21 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.4% | 63% | 20 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 12 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -8.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.12 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.7% | 55% | 20 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.6% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 18 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |