What if a supervolcano caldera starts showing signs of unrest?
Caldera unrest (Campi Flegrei / Yellowstone-type deformation) is a slow-burn fear trade: it bids ag (wheat/corn on crop-cooling tail risk) and dents risk appetite modestly, but eruption is not imminent, so it stays a tail premium not a position. The 1980s Campi Flegrei bradyseism crises are the analogue — years of unrest, no eruption, no durable market impact. The cascade's 'water-stress hits fabs → semis down' leg is a spurious artifact of the climate_supply root; the root itself (crop supply) is correct, the semi link is not.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Ground deformation and quakes at a supervolcano caldera spark eruption fears, threatening aviation and regional agriculture. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.