What if a major tech platform is banned or nationalised?
A platform ban/seizure in a large market reads as a trade-war proxy: it pressures NVDA and the semis on supply-chain exposure while Alibaba and the yuan take the China-retaliation leg. Rhymes with the 2020 US TikTok ban threat and the 2021 China platform crackdown (Didi delisting), which hit the named equities hard but stayed largely idiosyncratic. Transmission: US chips into China, China platforms into US listings - so escalation risk is mutual delisting/export-control tit-for-tat. Forward angle: the tail is a rare-earth or chip-tool counter-strike that broadens it into a genuine macro tariff shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major social/tech platform is banned or nationalized in a large market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.91–-0.18% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.63–-0.38% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.03–+1.38% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.04–+0.52% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.9–-0.08% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.13–-0.02% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.8–+0.53% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.56–+0.06% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.46–+1.28% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.06% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–-0.18% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.01% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.64–+1.0% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.42–+1.3% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's DXY long: the -1.0% history is a flimsy 2025 tariff-window cluster where the dollar fell on US-originated trade shocks — a foreign platform seizure is dollar-positive flight, opposite setup; structural change.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.4% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.14 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Platform bans/forced-divestitures recurrent (TikTok pattern); large-market ban over 1-3yr fairly likely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.