What if a global dash-for-cash collapses dollar liquidity and spikes the FRA-OIS spread above 75bp?
A global dash-for-cash collapses dollar liquidity across all tenors, with the FRA-OIS spread spiking above 75bp and FX-swap-implied dollar rates surging as in March 2020.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global dash-for-cash collapses dollar liquidity across all tenors, with the FRA-OIS spread spiking above 75bp and FX-swap-implied dollar rates surging as in March 2020. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -12.79–+1.29% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -7.9–+0.81% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.4% hist -3.52–+2.04% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.72–-0.07% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.57–+1.37% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.04–+1.2% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.87–-0.15% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–+1.69% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.13–+1.31% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.7–+0.96% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–-0.06% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.02–+0.78% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.21–+0.07% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -7.4% | 82% | 17 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -5.7% | 74% | 23 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 37 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.8% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |