What if Matterhorn and new Permian pipes ease Waha, lift HH netbacks?
Start-up of the Matterhorn Express and other Permian takeaway pipelines relieves negative Waha basis, letting more associated gas reach the Gulf-coast LNG corridor and supporting Henry Hub netbacks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Start-up of the Matterhorn Express and other Permian takeaway pipelines relieves negative Waha basis, letting more associated gas reach the Gulf-coast LNG corridor and supporting Henry Hub netbacks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.96–+7.27% · other way -3.48% (n=8) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.2–+2.15% · other way -4.85% (n=9) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.37–+12.5% · other way -2.13% (n=9) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.64–+2.59% · other way +3.05% (n=8) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.76–+2.98% · other way +3.75% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.41% · other way +0.36% (n=9) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.14–+4.91% · other way +3.51% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.01–+0.16% · other way +0.18% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 68% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 13 | 0.24 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 17 | 0.23 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.4% · 5d -9.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 9 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 9 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 16 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 56% | 17 | 0.09 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 53% | 15 | 0.06 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 15 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 15 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.6% | 50% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 45% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |