What if a memory shortage forces a chipmaker to miss shipments?
An HBM allocation crunch forcing a missed shipment quarter is a sharp supply shock hitting TSMC and Nvidia on near-term output, dragging the whole complex. Rhymes with the ASML Oct-2024 bookings-miss crash that took down the equipment chain in a session. Skeptic's note: missed-shipment misses are usually timing (slips to next quarter), not lost demand — historically a fade unless paired with order cancellations.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An HBM allocation crunch forces an accelerator vendor to miss quarterly shipment targets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.