What if Methane-regulation tightening raises US gas supply costs?
Stricter methane-emission rules and fees raise the cost of US gas production and venting compliance, trimming marginal supply and providing structural support to the Henry Hub cost curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Stricter methane-emission rules and fees raise the cost of US gas production and venting compliance, trimming marginal supply and providing structural support to the Henry Hub cost curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–+0.29% · other way -3.59% (n=11) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.01% · other way -4.08% (n=11) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.13% · other way -2.88% (n=12) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.22–+0.99% · other way -1.64% (n=11) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.93–+1.28% · other way -4.88% (n=11) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.29–+17.26% · other way +5.51% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.78–+2.81% · other way +2.29% (n=6) |
| 9 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.06% · other way -2.39% (n=12) |
| 10 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.68–+11.1% · other way +3.55% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +8.6% · 5d +2.6% | 78% | 22 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +15.0% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 23 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -4.3% | 69% | 26 | 0.28 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 15 | 0.07 | · |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 24 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 52% | 32 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -8.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 15 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 44% | 22 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 41% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 49% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 48% | 24 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 42% | 22 | 0.00 | · |