What if a major hurricane scores a direct hit on Miami?
A direct Miami strike is a property-insurance and muni-credit event: it breaches the Florida backstop (Citizens/FHCF) and widens Florida muni and CAT-bond spreads — not a grain shock. Rhymes with Hurricane Andrew (1992), which insolvent-ed multiple insurers and reshaped Florida's market. Transmission runs through reinsurance pricing, FHCF capacity, and coastal mortgage availability; the modeled wheat/corn leg is the wrong channel.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major hurricane scores a direct Miami strike, breaching the Florida property-insurance backstop and muni-bond market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.