What if Midterm sweep unlocks fresh fiscal stimulus?
A unified-government outcome opens the door to tax cuts and spending, widening deficits; the curve bear-steepens and breakevens rise on a growth-and-issuance impulse.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A unified-government outcome opens the door to tax cuts and spending, widening deficits; the curve bear-steepens and breakevens rise on a growth-and-issuance impulse. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -2.43–+15.53% · other way -3.4% (n=12) |
| 2 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.04–+19.49% · other way -7.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.91–+0.12% · other way +1.32% (n=12) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+1.14% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.5–+1.33% · other way -1.08% (n=9) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.27–+3.01% · other way -2.84% (n=9) |
| 8 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.81–+0.96% · other way -6.44% (n=9) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–-0.05% · other way +2.43% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.01–+8.29% · other way +11.0% (n=12) |
| 11 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.54–+0.99% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.3–+2.05% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.77–+0.15% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.44–+3.15% · other way +14.79% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -8.5% | 72% | 17 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 39 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -7.5% | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |