What if Mongolia Oyu Tolgoi underground hiccup trims copper ramp?
A technical setback in the Oyu Tolgoi underground block-cave delays planned copper output growth, removing expected new units from a tight market.
10%
our model probability over 0–6 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 10%· 90% range 1–19%· 40 analogues · measured class growth 61% in 6 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — growth ≈1.8868/yr → 61% in 6 mo61%
Analyst prior · editorial share 15% of the class9%
Pooled · weight 87%10%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)10%
Published10%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A technical setback in the Oyu Tolgoi underground block-cave delays planned copper output growth, removing expected new units from a tight market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Freeport (copper)FCX📈 chart
Equity
▲ +0.6%
hist -5.96–+1.03% · other way +8.79% (n=11)
2
CopperXCUon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.5%
hist -2.33–+0.74% · other way +0.37% (n=11)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Also moves (not yet on Hyperliquid): Freeport (copper) +0.6%
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
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