What if Natural-gas-supply squeeze raises power-burn fuel costs sharply?
A cold-winter or pipeline-constraint gas squeeze lifts power-sector fuel costs, raising wholesale electricity prices and squeezing unhedged generators while testing reliability.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold-winter or pipeline-constraint gas squeeze lifts power-sector fuel costs, raising wholesale electricity prices and squeezing unhedged generators while testing reliability. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.57–+1.57% · other way +14.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.67–+2.82% · other way +0.49% (n=10) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.09% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.81–+0.17% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.72% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.69% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.66–+0.17% · other way -1.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.08–-0.05% · other way +6.03% (n=10) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.18–+1.97% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.2% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.01–+0.98% · other way +6.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +5.0% | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.8% | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.6% | 40% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +1bp | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 39% | 36 | 0.00 | · |