What if another giant green-hydrogen project is cancelled?
Another gigawatt green-hydrogen cancellation extends the clean-H2 write-off wave; the honest trade is electrolyzer-maker and project-developer equity/credit lower, not an AI-capex/NVDA hit — hydrogen and GPUs are unrelated capex pools. Rhymes with 2023-24 cancellations (Orsted, repeated FID delays) as costs and offtake gaps killed projects. Skeptical: this is a clean-energy capitulation, not a macro risk-off; the mapped semis leg is mis-attributed and should not move on a hydrogen FID slip.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Another flagship gigawatt-scale green-hydrogen project is cancelled, extending the wave of write-offs across the clean-hydrogen sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.9–+0.2% · other way +7.93% (n=10) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.0% | 74% | 18 | 0.37 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.21 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
Why this probability
Green-hydrogen cancellations are a live ongoing wave; another flagship write-off likely within 6mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.