What if another giant green-hydrogen project is cancelled?
Another gigawatt green-hydrogen cancellation extends the clean-H2 write-off wave; the honest trade is electrolyzer-maker and project-developer equity/credit lower, not an AI-capex/NVDA hit — hydrogen and GPUs are unrelated capex pools. Rhymes with 2023-24 cancellations (Orsted, repeated FID delays) as costs and offtake gaps killed projects. Skeptical: this is a clean-energy capitulation, not a macro risk-off; the mapped semis leg is mis-attributed and should not move on a hydrogen FID slip.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Another flagship gigawatt-scale green-hydrogen project is cancelled, extending the wave of write-offs across the clean-hydrogen sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.