What if another cancellation wave kills US offshore wind?
Another US East-Coast offshore-wind cancellation wave is a clean-power-supply negative, but mapping it to AI-capex/NVDA lower is backwards: killing zero-carbon supply tightens the grid and is, if anything, bullish gas and firm generation. The honest read is higher regional power/PJM capacity prices and write-offs at the developers. Rhymes with the 2023 Orsted/Avangrid Northeast cancellations that booked billions in impairments. Forward angle: data-center load growth makes the lost MW more painful than in 2023.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A further cancellation wave kills the remaining under-construction US East Coast wind farms, writing off billions more. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.