What if Normalization stalls on a Gaza precondition?
Saudi Arabia conditions normalization on irreversible Palestinian-statehood steps Israel rejects, freezing the grand bargain and keeping the regional premium elevated.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Saudi Arabia conditions normalization on irreversible Palestinian-statehood steps Israel rejects, freezing the grand bargain and keeping the regional premium elevated. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.